HPWG November 2025 Market Update Podcast

Hello and Welcome to the NOVEMBER Hoffman Private Wealth group Podcast. My name is Todd Hoffman, and I am a Certified Portfolio Manager and Certified Financial Planner and Founder of Hoffman Private Wealth Group where I am a Managing Director and Wealth Advisor at Steward Partners. I’m joined by my Co-Host, Wealth Advisor- Jenna Makra. 
 
Jenna: Hello listeners, thank you for starting the month with us. October was jam-packed with market action, and November is looking to be another exciting one. But before we get into it, Tonight is Halloween, Todd? Are you dressing up? 

Todd: No, I think Susan and I will hang out on the porch with a glass of wine and hand out candy, what about you? 

Jenna: Chloe and I have been excited and planning for tonight for weeks. I am going out as Stitch, from the new Disney movie, and Chloe is my trusted sidekick, Stitch’s cute little pink counterpart, Angel. 

Todd: Adorable, Sounds like fun! I hope both you and Chloe have a lot of fun. 

Jenna: So, Todd, what do you think about the markets?

Todd: October has been fascinating with the Markets making new record highs multiple times. Even Europe, China and Japan are at or near highs, according to FactSet.

Jenna: Todd, why is the market doing so well right now — especially with the government shutdown and so many headlines about layoffs?

Todd: It’s a fair question. Despite the noise, there are several strong factors driving the market higher.

First, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point in October, which provided a boost to both confidence and liquidity. We’ve also had a wave of better-than-expected corporate earnings, particularly in key sectors like AI and technology, where growth has been very strong.

On the global side, trade and geopolitical sentiment has improved. This week, for example, we’ve seen a reduction in tensions between the U.S. and China. According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump’s recent trip to Asia produced new deals involving rare earth materials, semiconductors, and soybeans, along with an agreement to crack down on painkiller imports from China.

And finally, we’re seeing a big pickup in mergers and acquisitions and IPOs. In fact, EY reported that U.S. M&A activity in September was up nearly 110% year-over-year, with deal volume up 41%.

Jenna: Let’s talk about the bond market — I know a lot of clients have been asking about that lately. How have bonds been performing recently?

Todd: According to Madison Investments and MarketWatch, Treasury yields have been trending lower as investors continue to bet on more rate cuts ahead. That’s helped push prices on shorter-term bonds a bit higher.

That said, while the Fed did cut rates, they didn’t signal any additional cuts this year, and markets didn’t love that. Yields dropped right after the announcement, but interestingly, CNBC reported that mortgage rates moved slightly higher yesterday.

Jenna: That’s interesting — what about commodities? Oil’s been steady, but gold has really pulled back lately. What’s going on there?

Todd: You’re right. CNBC noted that oil has been trading in a stable range through October, but gold has sold off after a very strong run earlier in the year. I think gold just got a little ahead of itself. As investor anxiety faded and people started anticipating more Fed easing, interest in gold cooled off — at least for now.

Jenna:Morningstar is reporting that market sentiment is bullish right now, thanks to strong earnings and positive central bank comments. But at the same time, the Conference Board’s data shows consumer confidence has weakened, mainly because of inflation and job market concerns. Why do you think market sentiment is so strong while economic sentiment feels more mixed?

Todd:It’s a great observation — and honestly, markets can be funny that way. When people are making money and momentum is strong, investors tend to keep buying — even on dips. There’sdefinitely somefear of missing outdrivingbehavior right now.

That doesn’t mean people aren’t worried about the headlines — companies like Amazon, UPS, and Target announcing layoffs will always get attention. But you must look at the backstory.

During the pandemic, a lot of companies over hired — they were trying to secure talent any way they could. Then, as productivity lagged with so many people working from home, they kept those extra employees longer than they probably needed to. Now that more people are back in the office, and AI is driving productivity gains, companies are finally right sizing their workforces.

So, while layoffs sound negative, much of this is actually normalization, not a sign the economy is breaking down.

Todd: So, In the Halloween spirit, what do you get when you cross a Vampire and a Snowman? 
Jenna: Oh, here we go, What 

Todd: Frostbite! Why don't skeletons fight each other? 
Jenna: Why

Todd: They don't have guts. Last one - Why did the ghost go to the bar? 
Jenna – Please tell me!

Todd: For the boos. 

Jenna: Ok, back to your day job! Can you break down the sector winners and laggards this month?

Todd: According to Factset, Tech and Communication services outperformed, led by AI. Industrials and Financials caught a bounce on hopes of a rate cut. 
Healthcare and Consumer staples lagged with lots of reports about weak margin trends. Utilities were mixed, depending on the level of AI capacity investment.

Jenna: In the “what could go wrong” camp — what’s on your list of concerns right now?

Todd: Well, markets can get too hot at times. It worries me when you see companies rallying that really shouldn’t be, it’s often a sign that investor enthusiasm is getting ahead of fundamentals.

I’m also concerned about the government shutdown dragging on too long. There are a lot of people who depend on government paychecks — they still have families to feed and bills to pay. If this continues, it could start to weigh on sentiment and eventually spill over into the markets, especially if it begins to affect corporate earnings.

At the end of the day, we need less political grandstanding and more focus on getting people back to work.

Jenna: We’ve been hearing from more clients lately who are a bit uneasy — wondering if the market might pull back now that we’re sitting at all-time highs. What are your thoughts on that?

Todd: That’s a great question, and it’s completely understandable. When markets are at record levels, it’s normal for people to feel a little cautious. The good news is there’s a lot we can do.

Right now, I’m encouraging clients to take advantage of the strong gains we’ve seen. And I want to reassure everyone — when I start to see reasons for concern, we’ll take proactive steps to reduce risk well before were asked to. 

That said, if anyone is feeling uneasy or just wants to review their plan, we have several smart options we can discuss to help you stay comfortable and confident. I’m happy to walk through those strategies anytime.

Jenna: Todd, do you have any final thoughts for our listeners? 

Todd: Yes, first, a couple of housekeepingitems.It’s the end of the year, which means it’s time to take care of your Required Minimum Distributions. This is also a great time to consider Qualified Charitable Distributions directly from your IRA. If you’re over 70 and planning to make charitable gifts, please talk to us before simply writing a check — We can help you make those gifts in a more tax-efficient way.

Also, clients have a lot of highly appreciated positions. If you’re charitably inclined, this might be the right time to look at donor-advised funds or other charitable planning strategies that can create significant tax advantages.

And while we’re talking about year-end planning, don’t wait until the last minute for Roth conversions, IRA contributions, or other retirement plan contributions. November is the best time to get those done — not December 31st. We can help you handle all this now so you’re in great shape going into next year.

Another Item, a reminder, one thing that truly sets us apart is that we plan for bad markets. That doesn’t mean portfolios won’t fluctuate but our strategies are built to help mitigate losses and manage volatility over time.

Our average client has been with us for over a decade, and together we’ve seen both great markets and tough ones. We’ll see both again, and we’re ready. I think the next couple of years will be very exciting, with plenty of opportunities. But if you’re feeling uneasy, or you want to talk about gifting, taxes, or legacy planning — let’s schedule some time to talk. We’re here to help.

And finally, if you know someone who might benefit from what we do, please make an introduction. We hear every day from clients who tell us how much they appreciate our help. Not everyone has a team like ours — but they wish they did — and your introduction could make a real difference for them.

Jenna: Thanks, Todd. These are all great reminders as the year winds down. As Todd said, our entire team looks forward to hearing from you — whether it’s for year-end planning or just to touch base.

Todd: Thanks for listening to our November Market Recap. From our team to your families, we wish you a great month and a Happy Thanksgiving And if you enjoy our podcast, please share it with a friend.